Pacing Strategy Builder

For flat time trials, aim for as even a power output as possible. For rolling or hilly courses, push slightly harder on climbs and ease off on descents — the goal is even effort, not even speed. Holding power within about ±5% of your target average is a good benchmark; surging wastes energy that you cannot recover.

Your average power target is anchored to your FTP, not pulled from an assumed speed. By definition, FTP is the highest power you can hold for roughly an hour (Coggan & Allen), so for a ~1 hour event you target close to 100% of FTP. Longer events sit lower on the power-duration curve: roughly 88-92% of FTP for a 1-2 hour effort, ~85% for 2-3 hours, and ~80% or less for all-day rides.

Fuelling is duration-dependent (Jeukendrup). Efforts under about 75 minutes need little or no on-bike carbohydrate — your glycogen stores cover them. For 75 minutes to 2 hours, aim for roughly 30-60g of carbohydrate per hour. Beyond 2.5 hours you can take up to ~90g per hour using a 2:1 glucose-to-fructose mix. Always practise your nutrition in training to avoid stomach issues on race day.

The fatigue factor controls how much of a negative split the plan builds in — starting slightly conservatively and finishing fastest. A 2% factor skews the final quarter about 2% quicker than the opening quarter while keeping the four splits adding up exactly to your target time. Well-trained riders can hold a flatter profile; for most amateurs a small 2-5% skew is realistic.

Slightly negative splitting (starting conservative, finishing strong) is generally the fastest strategy. Starting too hard burns matches you cannot get back and leads to disproportionate fatigue later. The split times here are built as a mild negative split for exactly this reason — aim for the first quarter at around 95-98% of target power.